Estimating the Economic Bite of the H1N1 Flu Pandemic


Published On: June 24th, 2009

World mapWhile apparently not getting worse since its elevation to pandemic status, the H1N1 flu still will deliver quite an economic punch to Mexico, according to a World Bank report.

As ground zero for the flu, Mexico’s gross domestic product might reduce as much as 2.2%, the report says. Tourism in the country is down 43%. Bloomberg has more on the study.

The range of the potential economic impact from a pandemic is broad, according to a 2006 study cited by the World Bank. The low-end impact was estimated at 0.7% of global GDP, on the scale of the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69. At the high end, it could reduce global GDP by 4.8%, a figure benchmarked to the 1918-1919 Spanish flu. In the case of the current H1N1 outbreak, the impact depends on the severity of the pandemic when flu season rolls around again.

“Even if it does not mutate into a more deadly form, a second wave of the flu in low-income countries could have serious consequences — given poor countries’ limited capacity to monitor and treat an outbreak and the higher incidence of chronic disease within their populations,” according to the bank’s report.


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Estimating the Economic Bite of the H1N1 Flu Pandemic

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Racial and ethnic minorities are more likely to live in heavily polluted neighborhoods and work in high-risk occupations with lower air quality. Disparities in living and working conditions play a critical role in the incidence and burden of asthma in these populations. The effects of these conditions are evident in the adverse health outcomes experienced by children and adults in minority communities

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